Baseline Setting and Carbon Credit Quantification in Improved Forest Management: A Demonstrative Case Study

Abstract

Improved Forest Management (IFM) is expected to become a key component of the EU’s Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), yet baseline setting, additionality assessment, and carbon-removal quantification remain methodologically challenging. This study presents a demonstrative IFM case using a 4.7-hectare Scots pine–hornbeam stand in Western Hungary, combining extended rotation with climate-adaptive regeneration. A hypothetical baseline was derived from National Forestry Database data, while carbon sequestration was modelled using the Forest Industry Carbon Model with a 15% uncertainty correction. Project-related emissions were quantified under the IPCC guidelines. Over 2024–2055, total biomass carbon increased by 99 tC, with regeneration contributing an additional 44 tC. After deducting baseline sequestration and minor implementation emissions (<1% of total removals), the project generates 201 eligible carbon credits, equivalent to 10,074 EUR (7,255 EUR at present value). The case study illustrates how CRCF-aligned IFM assessments can be conducted in practice, stressing the importance of baseline definitions, the strong net-positive carbon balance of IFM measures, and the potential economic viability of such projects under forthcoming EU carbon removal standards.