Dynamic interactions among exchange rate, natural gas demand, production in manufacturing and battery industry export – evidence from Hungary
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21637/GT.2024.1.02Kulcsszavak:
Exchange rate fluctuation, natural gas demand, manufacturing development, battery industry export, HungaryAbsztrakt
In the context of the current global economic transformation, the rapid rise of the electric vehicle industry has made the battery industry a new focus of competition among countries. Despite its relatively small economic and demographic size, Hungary has garnered significant academic interest by emerging as the world’s third-largest battery producer in 2021. The study employed a dynamic vector autoregressive (VAR) model to determine that fluctuations in the Hungarian exchange rate have a notable immediate influ-ence on exports in the battery business，which suggests that changes in exc-hange rates directly affect international competitiveness. The battery sector is experiencing a progressive increase in the influence of fluctuations in na-tural gas demand, particularly in terms of their impact on production costs and supply chains. The battery industry has had substantial advancements in technological innovation and production efficiency as a direct result of the expansion in manufacturing production. And Hungary’s total industrial deve-lopment is significantly influenced by the long-term effects of export expan-sion in the battery industry.
JEL Codes: L62, E44, O14, C22
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