Az adózás szerepe a társadalmi polarizáció folyamataiban – egy ágens-alapú modell elemzése
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21637/GT.2025.3.02Kulcsszavak:
társadalmi polarizáció, adópolitika, Máté-elv, ágensalapú modellezés, makrogazdasági szimulációAbsztrakt
A társadalmi polarizáció a 21. században is meghatározó gazdasági és társadalmi folyamat, amely a jövedelmi és vagyoni különbségek növekedésén, a középosztály zsugorodásán, valamint a társadalmi mobilitás lassulásán keresztül alakítja a modern kapitalista rendszereket. A tanulmány célja kettős: egyrészt tudományos áttekintést adni az adózás és a polarizáció közötti kapcsolatról, másrészt a Gácsér–Vajai féle bővített ágens-alapú modell segítségével szimulálni a különböző adótípusok polarizációra gyakorolt hatásmechanizmusát. A modell alapját a preferenciális felhalmozás (a Máté-elv) gazdasági megnyilvánulásai, valamint a jövedelmi és vagyoni dinamikák mikroalapú reprezentációja képezi. A modell jelenlegi bővítése kiterjed a jövedelem- és vagyonadózás strukturális eltéréseinek szimulálására, valamint olyan új paraméterek beépítésére, amelyek a globális adóverseny és az adóelkerülés rendszer szintű hatásait is képesek megjeleníteni. Ennek köszönhetően a keretrendszer alkalmas arra, hogy további politikai szcenáriókat – például progresszív vagyonadó-bevezetést vagy célzott transzfermechanizmusokat – is összehasonlítható módon értékeljen. A kutatás eredményei szerint a forgalmi adók regresszív struktúrája, a jövedelemadók progresszivitásának csökkenése és a vagyonadó hiánya egyértelműen növeli a vagyoni különbségeket. A tanulmány következtetései hozzájárulnak a modern adópolitikai döntések megítéléséhez, különös tekintettel azok társadalmi polarizációra tett hatására.
JEL-kódok: Q01, D31, D63, H23, E62, D85, I31
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